Macron ‘very sceptical’ about Russia-Ukraine peace talks as Europe marks four years of war – Europe live

Zelenskyy pushes for Ukraine’s 2027 EU accession, but von der Leyen appears cautious on date

Jakub Krupa

There is one particularly interesting line from that earlier press briefing with Zelenskyy, Costa and von der Leyen is on Ukraine’s prospects for joining the European Union.

Zelenskyy pointedly said that he was hoping for 2027, a date which he said would be “very important to us,” as he repeated his warning that “Putin cannot block our membership for decades.”

But unusually, among otherwise very positive tone on other tricky issues including the prospect of unblocking the €90bn loan for Ukraine, von der Leyen appeared to push back on that a bit.

She praises the progress on reforms as she said:

“On your question, is there a way for Ukraine to become a member of the European Union, the answer is a very clear yes, of course. They are, Ukraine, on a good way to become a member of the European Union.”

But then she added:

“I understand very well that for you, a clear date is also important. The date you set is your benchmark that you want to match.

You know that from our side dates, by themselves, are not possible. But of course, the support that you can reach your goal is absolutely clear on our side.”

Unfazed, Zelenskyy reiterated that he wants Ukraine to be on a “fast track” for the membership to prevent Putin from blocking this path in the future.

One to keep an eye on in the coming months.

Jakub Krupa

I am back and ready to take you through some other headlines.

Russia can keep fighting Ukraine war throughout 2026, says military thinktank

Dan Sabbagh

Russia will be able to sustain its invasion of Ukraine throughout 2026 even allowing for emerging economic and manpower pressures, while its missile and drone threat to Europe is growing, according to a leading military thinktank.

Bastian Giegerich, the director general of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said there was “little indication” that “Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine for a fifth year is diminished”.

The thinktank reported that the Kremlin spent at least $186bn (£138bn) on defence in 2025, an increase of 3% in real terms, amounting to 7.3% of the country’s GDP – more than double the proportion spent by the US and about three times the level of the UK.

Fenella McGerty, a defence finance expert with the thinktank, said that while Russia’s economy was slowing, which could lead to “a potential decline” in real-terms military spending in 2026, it had to be set against several years of sharp growth.

Military spending “had doubled in real terms since 2021”, she emphasised, allowing Russia to spend more heavily on military equipment and recruitment to sustain relentless ground and air attacks against Ukraine in the immediate future.

Jakub Krupa

As I’m taking a quick break, Tom Ambrose is here to keep you up-to-date.

Ukraine has dismissed as “absurd” a Russian claim that Kyiv was trying to obtain nuclear weapons with the help of Britain and France (10:00, 14:59), Reuters reported.

“Russian officials, known for their impressive record of lies, are once again trying to fabricate the old ‘dirty bomb’ nonsense,” Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for the Ukrainian foreign ministry, said.

“For the record: Ukraine has already denied such absurd Russian claims many times before, and we officially deny them again now. We urge the international community to reject and condemn Russia’s dirty information bombs.“

Meanwhile, over in Geneva, dozens of mostly western states rallied behind Ukraine and condemned Russian aggression on Tuesday in a UN meeting in Geneva on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Reuters reported.

“What Russia has done and is doing in Ukraine right now is violating every principle in the book,” Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s foreign minister, told a meeting on the sidelines of the Human Rights Council attended by dozens of countries including France, Britain, Canada, Japan and Peru. The US did not appear to have sent a representative.

“Everything the UN stands for is being violated,” he added, ending his speech with “Glory to Ukraine!”.

Earlier, a group of mostly European diplomats walked out of a meeting of the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva during a speech by Russian ambassador Gennady Gatilov. They gathered outside, holding the Ukrainian flag and wearing sashes in the national colours, Reuters noted.

The president of the UN general assembly in New York, Annalena Baerbock, said that a motion was planned there expressing concern about Russia’s invasion and calling for an unconditional ceasefire and a lasting peace.

As we were chatting with Shaun, leaders of the G7 global powers, including US president Donald Trump, reaffirmed their “unwavering support for Ukraine” in a statement on the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion, AFP reported.

“We express our continued support for President Trump’s efforts to achieve these objectives by initiating a peace process and bringing the parties to direct discussions. Europe has a leading role to play in this process, joined by other partners,” the leaders of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan said in the statement.

It marks the first joint declaration by G7 leaders on Ukraine since Trump’s return to the White House a year ago, noted France, which holds the G7 presidency this year.

Jakub Krupa

And with that we wrap up today’s Q&A with Shaun, but stay with us for more news from Ukraine and across Europe as the continent marks the fourth anniversary of the full-scale Russian aggression.

Thank you so much for all your questions and contributions!

Q&A: Thanks for all your questions

Shaun Walker

Central and eastern Europe correspondent

Thanks for all your questions and sorry if I didn’t manage to answer yours.

I’m off back to Kyiv next week.

The next few months will be a key test of whether Donald Trump’s negotiators are able to pull some kind of workable deal out of the bag or whether Russia’s demands still cross so far over Ukraine’s red lines that the war will grind on. Unfortunately, most of the smart money is on the latter scenario.

Thanks for following the Guardian’s coverage and tell us if there’s something you would like to see us cover in more depth in Ukraine.

ComradeRuss has this personal question on the future of Zaporizhzhia:

“My partner fled from Zaporizhzhia with her disabled autistic daughter when the war began. Her journey has been hellish and terrifying but she is safe now in Canada and we have made a wonderful life together.

She knows the chances of ever visting Zaporizhzhia again are low but I am curious what your opinion is on the continued offensive on that front?

The main city of Zaporizhzhia still stands free but slowly the orcs are grinding closer. While her first language is Russian she has always identified as Ukrainian and supported Ukraine, she says she never knew anyone in her circle of friends, co-workers, acquaintances that ever supported Russia or ever saw themselves as anything but staunch Ukrainian loyalists.

With that said, she is dismayed at the state of negotiations that would put most of her oblast in the hands of the oppressors. Is there any chance that Ukraine could capitulate to US/Russian pressure and give up this land for good? I could see the Donbas and even Crimea being potential areas they would have to give up, but with a large percent of Zaporizhzhia still stands free and in Ukrainian control I would hate to think this was an option.

I only ask because Zaporizhzhia does not seen to garner anywhere near the level of discussion that the Donbas and Crimea do.”

Here’s Shaun’s view:

“Thanks for your question and I’m sorry about the upheaval the war has caused for your partner and her daughter.

Zaporizhzhia is one of my favourite Ukrainian cities and I’ve written extensively from there over the past few years, including this story from last summer on how people there feel about the idea of land swaps.

Certainly, unlike Crimea, and to a lesser extent Donbas, where there was some pro-Russian sentiment for Russian propaganda to work with, this was always much lower in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

I don’t think Ukraine would give up its claim to the land ‘for good’, but certainly there is a chance that in an eventual deal (which I don’t think we’re close to achieving yet) the lines would be “frozen” at their current point, and this could potentially turn into a de facto border for years or generations.

Either way, the city itself does not seem to be at risk from occupation in the near future.

I hope you’ll all have the chance to visit a free and safe Zaporizhzhia some time in the future.”

migdom84 takes us back to the first question on whether there is a genuine risk of nuclear weapons being used in this conflict (14:59).

“I still have the nagging fear that russians will, sooner or later, use nuclear weapons, which will force the world into two blocks, in favour or against, and we all know where that will lead. Do you believe we are close to that point?”

Here is Shaun’s take:

“I don’t.

Every time Putin has wheeled out nuclear rhetoric it has not led to anything, and he stopped doing so for a while after he saw that it was having little effect early in the war.

On the other hand, I can see why planners in the West have to take seriously even a 1% chance of the war going nuclear, and it’s clearly the one thing in Russia’s arsenal that forces the world to take it seriously.

Do I think Putin has gone so mad that he’d nuke a European city, knowing the consequences that would ensue? No.

Would I be willing to bet that, in some hypothetical future situation, with his back against the wall and his regime threatened, he wouldn’t at least consider the option? Also no.”